UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS FOR MULTI-REGION INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS - A CASE STUDY OF THE UK'S CARBON FOOTPRINT

This paper reviews and demonstrates methods available for estimating standard deviations for carbon multipliers in a multi-regional input-output (MRIO) framework. We attempt to capture all possible variations of underlying data and calculation procedures in a global MRIO model constructed with particular focus on the UK. We consider these variations to be random, and determine the stochastic variation of the whole MRIO system using Monte Carlo techniques. 5000 simulation runs were carried out to determine the standard deviations of multipliers. From these, the standard deviations of components of the UK's carbon footprint were estimated using error propagation. We estimate an 89% probability that the UK's carbon footprint has increased between 1994 and 2004.