What comes next after recession? - Airline industry scenarios and potential end games

While airline managers learned lessons from the 2001/2003 double dip economic crisis the post 2008 downturn has been more extreme Airlines reacted quickly in 2008 and adjusted capacities and cost levels but recovery in profits has been slow for many airlines The dynamics of the downturn has enlarged the gap between successful and less successful business models and fostered shakeouts of the latter Furthermore the occurrence of new business models has accelerated In 2001 it was the European continental low cost model this time we may see new attempts to change the rules of the game in international long-haul traffic Long-term non-cyclical trend such as deregulation or consolidation will also shape potential end game scenarios We briefly examine the differences between the last (2001/03) and the recent (2008/09) aviation crises and evaluate the impact on different types of carriers (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved