期刊
HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
卷 16, 期 11, 页码 4143-4156出版社
COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
DOI: 10.5194/hess-16-4143-2012
关键词
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资金
- KULTURisk (Fp7)
- project DEMON (NERC Storm Risk Mitigation Programme Project) [NE/I005242/1]
- NERC [NE/I005358/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- Natural Environment Research Council [NE/I005358/1] Funding Source: researchfish
Global flood hazard maps can be used in the assessment of flood risk in a number of different applications, including (re)insurance and large scale flood preparedness. Such global hazard maps can be generated using large scale physically based models of rainfall-runoff and river routing, when used in conjunction with a number of post-processing methods. In this study, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) land surface model is coupled to ERA-Interim reanalysis meteorological forcing data, and resultant runoff is passed to a river routing algorithm which simulates floodplains and flood flow across the global land area. The global hazard map is based on a 30 yr (1979-2010) simulation period. A Gumbel distribution is fitted to the annual maxima flows to derive a number of flood return periods. The return periods are calculated initially for a 25 x 25 km grid, which is then reprojected onto a 1 x 1 km grid to derive maps of higher resolution and estimate flooded fractional area for the individual 25 x 25 km cells. Several global and regional maps of flood return periods ranging from 2 to 500 yr are presented. The results compare reasonably to a benchmark data set of global flood hazard. The developed methodology can be applied to other datasets on a global or regional scale.
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