期刊
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCE LETTERS
卷 5, 期 6, 页码 509-513出版社
KEAI PUBLISHING LTD
DOI: 10.1080/16742834.2012.11447037
关键词
China; drought; EDI; RegCM3
资金
- National Basic Research Program of China [2009CB421407]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [41130103]
Based on 150-year simulations of a regional climate model, RegCM3, under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario, the effective drought index (EDI) is used to project the future drought change in China. During the baseline period 1986-2005, RegCM3 was found to reliably simulate the spatial pattern of drought over the country. Over the 21st century, the regionally averaged EDI should increase, corresponding to a decrease of drought, while the probability of extreme drought events should increase. Geographically, drought should clearly increase in Northeast China, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley, Southwest China, and southern Tibet but decrease in most parts of the rest of the country.
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