Clinical predictors of elective total joint replacement in persons with end-stage knee osteoarthritis

Background: Arthritis is a leading cause of disability in the United States. Total knee arthroplasty (TKA) has become the gold standard to manage the pain and disability associated with knee osteoarthritis (OA). Although more than 400 000 primary TKA surgeries are performed each year in the United States, not all individuals with knee OA elect to undergo the procedure. No clear consensus exists on criteria to determine who should undergo TKA. The purpose of this study was to determine which clinical factors will predict the decision to undergo TKA in individuals with end-stage knee OA. Knowledge of these factors will aid in clinical decision making for the timing of TKA. Methods: Functional data from one hundred twenty persons with end-stage knee OA were obtained through a database. All of the individuals complained of knee pain during daily activities and had radiographic evidence of OA. Functional and clinical tests, collectively referred to as the Delaware Osteoarthritis Profile, were completed by a physical therapist. This profile consisted of measuring height, weight, quadriceps strength and active knee range of motion, while functional mobility was assessed using the Timed Up and Go (TUG) test and the Stair Climbing Task (SCT). Self-perceived functional ability was measured using the activities of daily living subscale of the Knee Outcome Survey (KOS-ADLS). A logistic regression model was used to identify variables predictive of TKA use. Results: Forty subjects (33%) underwent TKA within two years of evaluation. These subjects were significantly older and had significantly slower TUG and SCT times (p < 0.05). Persons that underwent TKA were also significantly weaker, had lower self-reported function and had less knee extension than persons who did not undergo TKA. No differences between groups were seen for BMI, gender, knee flexion ROM and unilateral versus bilateral joint disease. Using backward regression, age, knee extension ROM and KOS-ADLS together significantly predicted whether or not a person would undergo TKA (p = 0.001, R(2) = 0.403). Conclusions: Younger patients with full knee ROM who have a higher self-perception of function are less likely to undergo TKA. Physicians and clinicians should be aware that potentially modifiable factors, such as knee ROM can be addressed to potentially postpone the need for TKA.