期刊
ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
卷 13, 期 6, 页码 3063-3085出版社
COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
DOI: 10.5194/acp-13-3063-2013
关键词
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资金
- Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate (ACC)
- Joint DECC and Defra Integrated Climate Programme [GA01101]
- Defra SSNIP air quality contract [AQ 0902]
- New Zealand Ministry of Science and Innovation
- National Science Foundation
- Office of Science (BER) of the US Department of Energy
- US Dept. of Energy (BER)
- LLNL [DE-AC52-07NA27344]
- NERSC [DE-AC02-05CH11231]
- NASA Modeling, Analysis and Prediction program
- Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan [S-7]
- Office of Science and Technology through EPSRC's High End Computing Programme
- Norwegian Research Council
- Meteo-France
- CNRS
- NASA MAP program
- NASA ACMAP program
- SciDAC program of the Dept. of Energy
- UK Met Office
- NOAA
- CICERO
- NIWA
- Edinburgh University
- NERC [NE/K001329/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- Natural Environment Research Council [NE/K001329/1, ceh010010] Funding Source: researchfish
- Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research [25241006] Funding Source: KAKEN
Ozone (O-3) from 17 atmospheric chemistry models taking part in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) has been used to calculate tropospheric ozone radiative forcings (RFs). All models applied a common set of anthropogenic emissions, which are better constrained for the present-day than the past. Future anthropogenic emissions follow the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, which define a relatively narrow range of possible air pollution emissions. We calculate a value for the pre-industrial (1750) to present-day (2010) tropospheric ozone RF of 410 mW m(-2). The model range of pre-industrial to present-day changes in O-3 produces a spread (+/- 1 standard deviation) in RFs of +/- 17 %. Three different radiation schemes were used we find differences in RFs between schemes (for the same ozone fields) of +/- 10 %. Applying two different tropopause definitions gives differences in RFs of +/- 3 %. Given additional (unquantified) uncertainties associated with emissions, climate-chemistry interactions and land-use change, we estimate an overall uncertainty of +/- 30% for the tropospheric ozone RF. Experiments carried out by a subset of six models attribute tropospheric ozone RF to increased emissions of methane (44 +/- 12 %), nitrogen oxides (31 +/- 9 %), carbon monoxide (15 +/- 3 %) and non-methane volatile organic compounds (9 +/- 2 %); earlier studies attributed more of the tropospheric ozone RF to methane and less to nitrogen oxides. Normalising RFs to changes in tropospheric column ozone, we find a global mean normalised RF of 42 mW m(-2) DU-1, a value similar to previous work. Using normalised RFs and future tropospheric column ozone projections we calculate future tropospheric ozone RFs (mW m(-2); relative to 1750) for the four future scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) of 350, 420, 370 and 460 (in 2030), and 200, 300, 280 and 600 (in 2100). Models show some coherent responses of ozone to climate change: decreases in the tropical lower troposphere, associated with increases in water vapour; and increases in the sub-tropical to mid-latitude upper troposphere, associated with increases in lightning and stratosphere-to-troposphere transport. Climate change has relatively small impacts on global mean tropospheric ozone RF.
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