The Spatial Patterns of Initial Errors Related to the Winter Predictability Barrier of the Indian Ocean Dipole

In this study, using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 2p1 (GFDL CM2p1) coupled model, the winter predictability barrier (WPB) is found to exist in the model not only in the growing phase but also the decaying phase of positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events due to the effect of initial errors. In particular, the WPB is stronger in the growing phase than in the decaying phase. These results indicate that initial errors can cause the WPB. The dominant patterns of the initial errors that cause the occurrence of the WPB often present an eastern-western dipole both in the surface and subsurface temperature components. These initial errors tend to concentrate in a few areas, and these areas may represent the sensitive areas of the predictions of positive IOD events. By increasing observations over these areas and eliminating initial errors here, the WPB phenomenon may be largely weakened and the forecast skill greatly improved.