Microevolutionary processes impact macroevolutionary patterns

Background: Macroevolutionary modeling of species diversification plays important roles in inferring large-scale biodiversity patterns. It allows estimation of speciation and extinction rates and statistically testing their relationships with different ecological factors. However, macroevolutionary patterns are ultimately generated by microevolutionary processes acting at population levels, especially when speciation and extinction are considered protracted instead of point events. Neglecting the connection between micro- and macroevolution may hinder our ability to fully understand the underlying mechanisms that drive the observed patterns. Results: In this simulation study, we used the protracted speciation framework to demonstrate that distinct microevolutionary scenarios can generate very similar biodiversity patterns (e.g., latitudinal diversity gradient). We also showed that current macroevolutionary models may not be able to distinguish these different scenarios. Conclusions: Given the compounded nature of speciation and extinction rates, one needs to be cautious when inferring causal relationships between ecological factors and macroevolutioanry rates. Future studies that incorporate microevolutionary processes into current modeling approaches are in need.