期刊
CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT
卷 10, 期 -, 页码 35-50出版社
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2015.06.001
关键词
Decision-centric assessment; Integrated modeling; Water law; Drought
资金
- Weather and Climate Assessment Program and the Climate Science Applications Program of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
- National Science Foundation
A multi-step decision support process was developed and applied to the physically and legally complex case of water diversions from the Upper Colorado River across the Continental Divide to serve cities and farms along Colorado's Front Range. We illustrate our approach by simulating the performance of an existing drought-response measure, the Shoshone Call Relaxation Agreement (SCRA) [the adaptation measure], using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool [the hydrologic cycle and water systems model]; and the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM- DC) [the stochastic climate scenario generator]. Scenarios relevant to the decision community were analyzed and results indicate that this drought management measure would provide only a small storage benefit in offsetting the impacts of a shift to a warmer and drier future climate coupled with related environmental changes. The analysis demonstrates the importance of engaging water managers in the development of credible and computationally efficient decision support tools that accurately capture the physical, legal and contractual dimensions of their climate risk management problems. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
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