A novel prognostic model in elderly patients with acute myeloid leukemia: results of 909 patients entered into the prospective AML96 trial

We present an analysis of prognostic factors derived from a trial in patients with acute myeloid leukemia older than 60 years. The AML96 trial included 909 patients with a median age of 67 years (range, 61-87 years). Treatment included cytarabine-based induction therapy followed by 1 consolidation. The median follow-up time for all patients is 68 months (5.7 years). A total of 454 of all 909 patients reached a complete remission (50%). Five-year overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival were 9.7% and 14%, respectively. Multivariate analyses revealed that karyotype, age, NPM1 mutation status, white blood cell count, lactate dehydrogenase, and CD34 expression were of independent prognostic significance for OS. On the basis of the multivariate Cox model, an additive risk score was developed that allowed the subdivision of the largest group of patients with an intermediate-risk karyotype into 2 groups. We are, therefore, able to distinguish 4 prognostic groups: favorable risk, good intermediate risk, adverse intermediate risk, and high risk. The corresponding 3-year OS rates were 39.5%, 30%, 10.6%, and 3.3%, respectively. The risk model allows further stratification of patients with intermediate-risk karyotype into 2 prognostic groups with implications for the therapeutic strategy.