期刊
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
卷 28, 期 19, 页码 7873-7893出版社
AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0100.1
关键词
Atm; Ocean Structure; Phenomena; North Atlantic Oscillation; Sea surface temperature; Mathematical and statistical techniques; Empirical orthogonal functions; Principal components analysis; Statistics; Time series
资金
- Groupement d'Interet Scientifique (GIS) Reseau de Recherche sur le Developpement Soutenable (R2DS) of the Region Ile-de-France at the Ecole Normale Superieure in Paris
- NSF [DMS-1049253, OCE-1243175]
- ONR's Multidisciplinary University Research Initiative (MURI) [N00014-12-1-0911]
- Directorate For Geosciences [1243175] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Division Of Ocean Sciences [1243175] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
Singular spectrum analysis (SSA) along with its multivariate extension (M-SSA) provides an efficient way to identify weak oscillatory behavior in high-dimensional data. To prevent the misinterpretation of stochastic fluctuations in short time series as oscillations, Monte Carlo (MC)-type hypothesis tests provide objective criteria for the statistical significance of the oscillatory behavior. Procrustes target rotation is introduced here as a key method for refining previously available MC tests. The proposed modification helps reduce the risk of type-I errors, and it is shown to improve the test's discriminating power. The reliability of the proposed methodology is examined in an idealized setting for a cluster of harmonic oscillators immersed in red noise. Furthermore, the common method of data compression into a few leading principal components, prior to M-SSA, is reexamined, and its possibly negative effects are discussed. Finally, the generalized Procrustes test is applied to the analysis of interannual variability in the North Atlantic's sea surface temperature and sea level pressure fields. The results of this analysis provide further evidence for shared mechanisms of variability between the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Oscillation in the interannual frequency band.
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