Prognostic value of molecular markers, sub-stage and European Organisation for the Research and Treatment of Cancer risk scores in primary T1 bladder cancer

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the prognostic significance of four molecular markers, sub-stage and European Organisation for the Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) risk scores in primary T1 bladder cancer (BC) treated with adjuvant bacille Calmette-Guerin. PATIENTS AND METHODS The slides of 129 carcinomas of the bladder from two university hospitals were reviewed and the T1 diagnosis was confirmed. T1 sub-staging was done in two separate rounds, using a new system that identifies micro-invasive (T1m) and extensive-invasive (T1e) T1BC, and then according to invasion of the muscularis mucosae (T1a/T1b/T1c). The EORTC risk scores for recurrence and progression were calculated. Uni- and multivariable analyses for recurrence and progression were performed using clinicopathological variables, T1 sub-stage, EORTC risk scores and molecular markers (fibroblast growth factor receptor 3 gene mutation and Ki-67, P53, P27 expression). RESULTS The median follow-up was 6.5 years. Forty-two patients remained recurrence-free (33%). Progression to T2 or metastasis was observed in 38 (30%) patients. In multivariable analysis for recurrence, multiplicity was significant. In multivariable analysis for progression, female gender, sub-stage (T1m/T1e) and carcinoma in situ (CIS) were significant. Molecular markers were significant in univariable and in multivariable analyses for recurrence. EORTC risk scores were not significant. CONCLUSIONS CIS, female gender and sub-stage (T1m/T1e) were the most important variables for progression. The additional value of molecular markers was modest. Sub-stage (T1m/T1e) could potentially be incorporated in future tumour-node-metastasis classifications.