期刊
DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS
卷 24, 期 3, 页码 363-374出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12686
关键词
Chiroptera; dispersal; ensemble species distribution models; environmental change; environmental suitability; megadiverse regions
资金
- American Society of Mammalogists
- Bat Conservation International
- Cambridge Commonwealth European and International Trust [301879989]
- CONACYT [310731]
- Hitchcock funds Cambridge
- Idea Wild, Rufford Small Grants [12059-1]
- Whitmore Trust Cambridge
- Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) [EP/K015664/1]
- Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council [EP/K015664/1] Funding Source: researchfish
- EPSRC [EP/K015664/1] Funding Source: UKRI
Aim: Climate and land use change are among the most important threatening processes driving biodiversity loss, especially in the tropics. Although the potential impacts of each threat have been widely studied in isolation, few studies have assessed the impacts of climate and land cover change in combination. Here, we evaluate the exposure of a large mammalian clade, bats, to multiple scenarios of environmental change and dispersal to understand potential consequences for biodiversity conservation. Location: Mexico. Methods: We used ensemble species distribution models to forecast changes in environmental suitability for 130 bat species that occur in Mexico by 2050s under four dispersal assumptions and four combined climate and land use change scenarios. We identified regions with the strongest projected impacts for each scenario and assessed the overlap across scenarios. Results: The combined effects of climate and land use change will cause an average reduction in environmental suitability for 51% of the species across their range, regardless of scenario. Overall, species show a mean decrease in environmental suitability in at least 46% of their current range in all scenarios of change and dispersal. Climate scenarios had a higher impact on species environmental suitability than land use scenarios. There was a spatial overlap of 43% across the four environmental change scenarios for the regions projected to have the strongest impacts. Main conclusions: Combined effects of future environmental change may result in substantial declines in environmental suitability for Mexican bats even under optimistic scenarios. This study highlights the vulnerability of megadiverse regions and an indicator taxon to human disturbance. The consideration of combined threats can make an important difference in how we react to changes to conserve our biodiversity as they pose different challenges.
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