期刊
REGIONAL STUDIES
卷 52, 期 8, 页码 1111-1121出版社
ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/00343404.2017.1335865
关键词
city shrinkage; China; city and regional development; population ageing; general ordered logit model
资金
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [41371008, 41530751]
- Early Career Talent Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences 'Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences' [2014042]
- Kezhen Program of the Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS [2016RC101]
- CAS programme 'Foreign Visiting Scholar of the CAS' [2017VP01]
Analysis of the latest census data for 2000 and 2010 shows that 88 out of 336 Chinese municipalities suffered combinations of total, urban and hukou population loss. A general ordered logit model examines the ways manufacturing decline, services growth and demographic vitality interact in a specifically Chinese context of population control, contributing empirically and theoretically to studies of city shrinkage. Chinese experience shows that while some cities act as growth engines in emerging economies, others may shrink, and this process may happen before the completion of a rural-urban transition. These findings call for a modification of China's growth-oriented urban policy.
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