The conformation adopted by a ligand on binding to a receptor may differ from its lowest-energy conformation in solution. In addition, the bound ligand is more conformationally restricted, which is associated with a configurational entropy loss. The free energy change due to these effects is often neglected or treated crudely in current models for predicting binding affinity. We present a method for estimating this contribution, based on perturbation theory using the quasi-harmonic model of Karplus and Kushick as a reference system. The consistency of the method is checked for small model systems. Subsequently we use the method, along with an estimate for the enthalpic contribution due to ligand-receptor interactions, to calculate relative binding affinities. The AMBER force field and generalized Born implicit solvent model is used. Binding affinities were estimated for a test set of 233 protein-ligand complexes for which crystal structures and measured binding affinities are available. In most cases, the ligand conformation in the bound state was significantly different from the most favorable conformation in solution. In general, the correlation between measured and calculated ligand binding affinities including the free energy change due to ligand conformational change is comparable to or slightly better than that obtained by using an empirically-trained docking score. Both entropic and enthalpic contributions to this free energy change are significant.
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