期刊
BIOLOGY-BASEL
卷 9, 期 3, 页码 -出版社
MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/biology9030050
关键词
corona virus; reported and unreported cases; isolation; quarantine; public closings; epidemic mathematical model
类别
资金
- NSFC
- CNRS [11871007, 11811530272]
- Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities
We develop a mathematical model to provide epidemic predictions for the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China. We use reported case data up to 31 January 2020 from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission to parameterize the model. From the parameterized model, we identify the number of unreported cases. We then use the model to project the epidemic forward with varying levels of public health interventions. The model predictions emphasize the importance of major public health interventions in controlling COVID-19 epidemics.
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