期刊
EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION
卷 148, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268820000990
关键词
Coronavirus; epidemics; infectious disease control; mathematical modelling; pandemic
资金
- French programme Les Enveloppes Fluides et l'Environnement (CNRS-INSU)
- French programme Defi Infinity (CNRS)
- Programme National de Teledetection Spatiale (CNRS-INSU)
While predicting the course of an epidemic is difficult, predicting the course of a pandemic from an emerging virus is even more so. The validity of most predictive models relies on numerous parameters, involving biological and social characteristics often unknown or highly uncertain. Data of the COVID-19 epidemics in China, Japan, South Korea and Italy were used to build up deterministic models without strong assumptions. These models were then applied to other countries to identify the closest scenarios in order to foresee their coming behaviour. The models enabled to predict situations that were confirmed little by little, proving that these tools can be efficient and useful for decision making in a quickly evolving operational context.
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