期刊
IEEE ACCESS
卷 8, 期 -, 页码 51761-51769出版社
IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC
DOI: 10.1109/ACCESS.2020.2979599
关键词
Mathematical model; Sociology; Statistics; Predictive models; Viruses (medical); Urban areas; Diseases; Epidemic transmission; infection rate; mathematical model; novel coronavirus; prediction; removal rate
资金
- Discipline Layout Project for Basic Research of Shenzhen Science and Technology Innovation Committee [JCYJ20170810103011913]
- Guangdong Special Fund Program for Economic Development (Marine Economic) [GDME-2018E001]
The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak has been treated as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization. This work made an early prediction of the 2019-nCoV outbreak in China based on a simple mathematical model and limited epidemiological data. Combing characteristics of the historical epidemic, we found part of the released data is unreasonable. Through ruling out the unreasonable data, the model predictions exhibit that the number of the cumulative 2019-nCoV cases may reach 76,000 to 230,000, with a peak of the unrecovered infectives (22,000-74,000) occurring in late February to early March. After that, the infected cases will rapidly monotonically decrease until early May to late June, when the 2019-nCoV outbreak will fade out. Strong anti-epidemic may reduce the cumulative infected cases by 40 & x0025;-49 & x0025;. The improvement of medical care can also lead to about one-half transmission decrease and effectively shorten the duration of the 2019-nCoV.
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