Agricultural impacts of climate change in Spain: developing tools for a spatial analysis

CERES-Wheat, a dynamic process crop growth model, is specified and validated for seven sites in the major wheat-growing regions of Spain. Variables explaining a significant proportion of simulated yield Variance are crop water (sum of precipitation and irrigation) and temperature during the growing season. A multiple linear regression model is developed to represent simulated yield response to these variables. Seven agro-climatic regions are defined based on K-mean cluster analysis of temperature and precipitation data from 329 meteorological stations and provincial crop yield data. The yield functions derived from the validated crop model were then used with the gridded agro-climatic database to conduct a spatial analysis of climate change impacts on national wheat production. Climate change scenarios with and without sulfate aerosols developed from the Hadley Centre (HCGG and HCGS) and Canadian Climate Centre (CCGG and CCGC) are tested. (C) 2000 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.