期刊
EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH
卷 122, 期 2, 页码 461-468出版社
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
DOI: 10.1016/S0377-2217(99)00247-7
关键词
decision analysis; modeling; risk analysis; utility theory; low probability high consequence events; planning earthquake safety
In this paper, we show that a value function under risk is useful to model low probability and high consequence events like earthquakes for which the expected utility theory is inadequate. First, we assume alternatives to improve buildings, some scenarios of earthquakes, costs to improve buildings, probability of death and injury and cost of restoring the building's damage for each scenario. Then we show that the value function under risk is an appropriate approach to model and analyze a decision making process with low probability and high consequence events. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
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