The AIM/end-use model and its application to forecast Japanese carbon dioxide emissions

The Asian-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) has been developed for predicting greenhouse gas emissions and evaluating policy measures to reduce them. Two socioeconomic scenarios were assumed and CO2 emissions were predicted based on these scenarios and policy intervention assumptions. It is found that mitigating CO2 emissions by 6% to the 1990 level is possible without scaling back productive activities or living standards in Japan. However, this cannot be achieved by relying on the market mechanism alone. Our analysis shows that it is indispensable to introduce new policies and measures such as a carbon tax and subsidies. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.