Path analysis of spatial predictors of front-yard landscape in an anthropogenic environment

Contagious spatial patterns were shown to exist in the landscape of front-yards in street sections of Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, Montreal. Neighbour mimicry was hypothesized as the mechanism behind this pattern (Zmyslony and Gagnon 1998). To assess the role of spatial environmental factors in structuring this pattern, we carried out a path analysis on the front-yard landscape with five spatial factors: relative distance, street side, width, depth and type of front-yard. We removed all non-significant factors from our model with simple Mantel tests and untangled the common spatial component from the relationship between spatial factors and front-yard landscape with partial Mantel tests. We then used path analysis to evaluate the relative importance of all significant spatial factors in structuring front-yard landscape and to determine the r(2) (% of landscape variation explained by spatial factors). Results showed that (1) among all spatial environmental factors, distance (proximity) remained the best predictor of front-yard vegetation - distance alone explained an average of 20% of the landscape variation of a street section, (2) depth, width and type of front-yard also structured the front-yard landscape independently of distance, (3) front-yard landscape expresses greater similarity within the same side of a street section, and (4) in two street sections of Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, spatial factors predicted over 40% of the landscape variation. This suggests (1) that landscape contagion exists also in highly humanized environments and (2) that the mimicry phenomenon was induced not only by proximity, but also by similar environmental conditions in same side street sections and whole street sections. Finally, we suggest that street sections are a very useful and appropriate unit of analysis of urban ecosystems.