Modelling planning control decisions: a logistic regression analysis on office development applications in urban Kowloon, Hong Kong

Planning control decisions are often characterized as results of a complex deliberation process that involves consideration of many factors. This exploratory study uses logistic regression to investigate whether it is possible, based upon a small number of quantifiable variables, to correctly predict the past decisions on 162 planning applications for commercial-office development in urban Kowloon of Hong Kong, Our final quantitative model identifies four key factors that can explain up to 77% of the decisions, but none of these factors are included in the formal planning guidelines. This study suggests the need for further research into the local planning control decision making process, particularly in relation to the issues of certainty and flexibility, the relationship between planning and market, and interaction between policy and decision. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.