Host-area specific climatic-matching: similarity breeds exotics

Non-indigenous species invasions carry a high price in economic and ecological terms. Preventing the establishment of nonindigenous species is preferable to post-establishment control and eradication. Predicting where the next nonindigenous species will come from can help in deterring the introduction and establishment of potential invasive species. Discriminant analyses were performed to determine the relationship between plant species distributions and 16 climatic variables for south Florida and Australia. The discriminant functions correctly identified half-degree blocks in Australia that held high numbers of species (both native and non-indigenous) shared by south Florida and Australia. Climate data for Africa and the Americas was applied to the discriminant function to predict regions with potentially high numbers of plant species that are climatically pre-adapted to south Florida. The results of these analyses will be used to focus research on areas that have the greatest potential for contributing species to the already severely invaded natural areas of south Florida. The results also suggest a mechanism to control the introduction of nonindigenous species to any host area of interest. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.