期刊
MEDICAL DECISION MAKING
卷 20, 期 3, 页码 314-322出版社
HANLEY & BELFUS INC
DOI: 10.1177/0272989X0002000308
关键词
simulation; probabilistic sensitivity analysis; Monte Carlo; confidence interval; cost-effectiveness; implementation
Actual implementation of probabilistic sensitivity analysis may lead to misleading or improper conclusions when it is applied to groups of patients rather than individual patients. The practice of combining first- and second-order simulations when modeling the outcome for a group of more than one patient yields an erroneous marginal distribution whenever the parameter values are randomly sampled for each patient while the results are presented as simulated means for the group of patients. This practice results in underrepresenting the second-order uncertainty. it may also distort the shape (especially the symmetry or extent of the tails) in the simulated distribution. As a result, it may lead to premature or incorrect conclusions of superiority. It may also result in inappropriate estimates of the value of further research to inform parameter values.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据