期刊
BIOMETRICS
卷 56, 期 3, 页码 951-956出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/j.0006-341X.2000.00951.x
关键词
Bayesian inference; herring gulls; mallards; marginal inference; Markov chain Monte Carlo; maximum likelihood; ridge; ring-recovery data
Vounatsou and Smith (1995, Biometrics 51, 687-708) describe the modern Bayesian analysis of ring-recovery data. Here we discuss and extend their work. We draw different conclusions from two major data analyses. We emphasize the extreme sensitivity of certain parameter estimates to the choice of prior distribution and conclude that naive use of Bayesian methods in this area can be misleading. Additionally, we explain the discrepancy between the Bayesian and classical analyses when the likelihood surface has a flat ridge; In this case, when there is no unique maximum likelihood estimate, the Bayesian estimators are remarkably precise.
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