Greenhouse gas emissions scenarios

The objective of this article is to summarize a set of 40 emissions scenarios developed by five different modeling teams. The scenarios are based on an extensive assessment of the literature and shared assumptions about the main driving forces of future emissions. They were developed in collaboration with many groups and individuals over the last 3 years. The scenarios are rooted in four narrative stories about future worlds that describe alternative developments relevant for emissions and their driving forces. Each scenario is a quantitative interpretation of one of four future worlds developed by one of the five models. Together, the scenarios cover a wide range of the main driving forces of future emissions from demographic to social and economic developments. For example, the scenarios encompass different future developments that might influence greenhouse gas (GHG) sources and sinks, such as alternative structures of energy systems and landuse changes. By design, the scenarios cover most of the GHG emissions range in the published scenario literature. The emissions scenarios encompass all relevant species of GHGs and emissions of sulfur dioxide. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc.