The role of the North Aegean in triggering the recent Eastern Mediterranean climatic changes

Drastic changes have occurred in the vertical structure of the deep waters of the eastern Mediterranean in the early 1990s, as dense water of Aegean origin has displaced lighter waters of Adriatic origin at the bottom of the deep basins. This work suggests that the initiation of this process took place in the North Aegean in the winter of 1986/1987 and was intensified by another formation event in 1992/1993. The available observations from the North Aegean support such a scenario. Furthermore, we propose that the outflow of Black Sea waters into the Aegean through the Dardanelles could act as an insulator of the deeper layer from the atmosphere, thus absorbing a large part of the heat and salt exchange; despite this fact, the existence of the densest bottom water of the Mediterranean in the North Aegean, and the continuation of density increase for a large period of time, suggests that it is a region of formation, thus that the insulation layer may at times be penetrated. We suggest that reduced Black Sea outflow into the North Aegean could facilitate dense water formation during the passage of cold atmospheric fronts in the winter.