The influence of climate change on maize production in the semi-humid-semi-arid areas of Kenya

The effect of climate change on maize production in the semi-humid and semi-arid, agro-climatic zones III-IV of Kenya was evaluated using two General Circulation Models (GCMs): the Canadian Climate Center Model (CCCM) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), as well as the CERES-Maize model. Long-term climate data was obtained from three meteorological stations situated in eastern, central and western regions of Kenya, while maize data was obtained from six sites within the regions. The climate scenarios were projected to the year 2030. Temperature increases of 2.29 and 2.89 degreesC are predicted by the CCCM and GFDL, respectively. Rainfall levels are predicted to remain unchanged, but there are thought to be shifts in distribution. It is predicted that the short-rains season (October-January) will experience some increased rainfall, while the long-rains season (April-July) will show a decrease. Maize yields are predicted to decrease in zone III areas, while an increase is predicted in zone IV areas. However, the predicted changes in yields are low since they all fall below 500 kg ha(-1), except the Homa Bay site. Thus, to counter the adverse effects of climate change on maize production, it may be necessary to use early maturing cultivars, practice early planting, and in eastern Kenya, shift to growing maize during the short-rains season. (C) 2000 Academic Press.