Nicotine yield from machine-smoked cigarettes and nicotine intakes in smokers: Evidence from a representative population survey

Background: The relevance of nicotine yields from machine-smoked cigarettes for quantifying smokers' nicotine intakes and exposure to cigarette toxins has been called into question. However, most studies of the relationship between nicotine yield and nicotine intake have been on relatively small and unrepresentative samples and have included few smokers of ultra-low brands (i.e., those yielding around 1 mg of tar and 0.1 mg of nicotine). Methods: We examined the relationship between salivary cotinine (a major metabolite of nicotine) concentrations and nicotine yields of machine-smoked cigarettes in a nationally representative sample of 2031 adult smokers of manufactured cigarettes surveyed in the 1998 Health Survey for England. We used standard linear regression techniques to examine associations and two-sided tests of statistical significance. Results: Cotinine concentrations varied widely between smokers at any level of nominal brand nicotine yield. On average, cotinine levels were slightly lower in smokers of lower nicotine-yielding brands, but these smokers differed in terms of sex, socioeconomic profile, and cigarette consumption. After we controlled for potential confounders, nicotine yield from the brand smoked accounted for only 0.79% of the variation in saliva cotinine concentrations. Nicotine intake per cigarette smoked, as estimated from salivary cotinine level, did not correspond with machine-smoked yields at any level of nicotine yield. Nicotine intake per cigarette was about eight times greater than machine-smoked yields at the lowest deliveries (1.17 mg estimated nicotine intake per cigarette from brands averaging 0.14-mg delivery from machine smoking) and 1.4 times greater for the highest yield cigarettes (1.31-mg estimated nicotine intake per cigarette from brands averaging 0.91 mg from machine smoking). Conclusions: Smokers' tendency to regulate nicotine intake vitiates potential health gains from lower tar and nicotine cigarettes. Current approaches to characterizing tar and nicotine yields of cigarettes provide a simplistic guide to smokers' exposure that is misleading to consumers and regulators alike and should be abandoned.