Global-scale relationships between climate and the dengue fever vector, Aedes aegypti

Considerable interest exists in the potential role climate may play in human health issues, especially regarding the effect of climate change on vector-borne disease. The Aedes aegypti mosquito, the principal vector for dengue, considered the most important vector-borne viral disease in the world, is particularly susceptible to climate variability and climatic change. Here we present a modeling analysis focusing on global-scale associations between climate and the development, potential distribution, and population dynamics of Ae. aegypti. We evaluate the model by comparing and contrasting model data with observed mosquito densities. There is good agreement between the observed and modeled global distribution of the mosquito; however, the model results suggest the potential for increased latitudinal distributions during warmer months. Seasonal fluctuations in mosquito abundance also compare well to observed data. Discrepancies possibly reflect the relatively low resolution of the climate data and model output and the inability of the model to account for local microclimate effects, especially in coastal areas. Future modeling efforts will involve study of interannual variability in mosquito dynamics.