期刊
NATURAL HAZARDS
卷 23, 期 2-3, 页码 171-196出版社
KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL
DOI: 10.1023/A:1011160904414
关键词
climate hazards; seasonal forecasting; agriculture; water resources; Africa; Europe; Australia; USA
One of the most promising developments for early warning of climate hazards is seasonal climate forecasting. Already forecasts are operational in many parts of the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly for droughts and floods associated with ENSO events. Prospects for further development of seasonal forecasting for a range of climatic hazards are reviewed, illustrated with case studies in Africa, Australia, the U.S.A. and Europe. A critical evaluation of the utility of seasonal forecasts centres on vulnerability, communication channels, and effective responses. In contrast to short-term prediction, seasonal forecasts raise new issues of preparedness and the use of information.
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