Climate change and mosquito-borne disease

Global atmospheric temperatures are presently in a warming phase that began 250-300 years ago. Speculations on the potential impact of continued warming on human health often focus on mosquito-borne diseases. Elementary models suggest that higher global temperatures will enhance their transmission rates and extend their geographic ranges. However, the histories of three such diseases-malaria, yellow fever, and dengue-reveal that climate has rarely been the principal determinant of their prevalence or range: human activities and their impact on local ecology have generally been much more significant. It Is therefore inappropriate to use climate-based models to predict future prevalence.