Biasing factors for simple soil ingestion estimates in mass balance studies of soil ingestion

Soil ingestion estimates from mass balance soil ingestion studies can be used in Monte Carlo Risk assessment. We develop and describe a simulation model based on four mass balance soil ingestion studies that enables food ingestion, soil ingestion, and transit time to be mimicked. We use the simulation to evaluate potential biases that exist in current estimates of the distribution of daily soil ingestion in children (constructed from subject specific average daily estimates). The simulation identifies the importance of the study duration on the bias in the upper percentile soil ingestion estimates, indicating that the 95% soil ingestion estimate may be positively biased by over 100%. Misspecification of play areas for soil sampling is shown to have no biasing effect, and absorption of trace elements in food of up to 30% is shown to bias the soil ingestion distribution by less than 20 mg/d. The results, based on Al and Si trace element estimates, define the limits of previously published soil ingestion estimates, and provide insight for future study design and estimation methods.