Earthquake scenarios for the city of Basel

Damage scenarios for Basel (Switzerland) are presented, based on a microzonation study and on the distribution of buildings in the different districts of the city. Two reference scenarios are assumed, corresponding to an event with an intensity between W and VIII and a return period of 475 years, and an event that simulates the 1356 Basel earthquake with an intensity of IX in the city. The overall building damage in the different districts ranges between 8 and 20% for the intensity VII-VIII scenario, while for the intensity IX scenario values range from 31 to 56%. The variation in building vulnerability class within the city and the variability of local ground conditions affect the overall damage significantly, so that their influence on earthquake damage can accumulate or cancel for single districts. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. Ail rights reserved.