The frequency of U-shaped dose responses in the toxicological literature

Hormesis has been defined as a dose-response relationship in which there is a stimulatory response at low doses, but an inhibitory response at high doses, resulting in a U- or inverted U-shaped dose response. To assess the proportion of studies satisfying criteria for evidence of hormesis, a database was created from published toxicological literature using rigorous a priori entry and evaluative criteria. One percent (195 out of 20,285) of the published articles contained 668 dose-response relationships that met the entry criteria. Subsequent application of evaluative criteria revealed that 245 (37% of 668) dose-response relationships from 86 articles (0.4% of 20,285) satisfied requirements for evidence of hormesis. Quantitative evaluation of false-positive and false-negative responses indicated that the data were not very susceptible to such influences. A complementary analysis of all dose responses assessed by hypothesis testing or distributional analyses, where the units of comparison were treatment doses below the NOAEL, revealed that of 1089 doses below the NOAEL, 213 (19.5%) satisfied statistical significance or distributional data evaluative criteria for hormesis, 869 (80%) did not differ from the control, and 7 (0.6%) displayed evidence of false-positive values. The 32.5-fold (19.5% vs 0.6%) greater occurrence of hormetic responses than a response of similar magnitude in the opposite (negative) direction strongly supports the nonrandom nature of hormetic responses. This study, which provides the first documentation of a data-derived frequency of hormetic responses in the toxicologically oriented literature, indicates that when the study design satisfies a priori criteria (i.e., a well-defined NOAEL, greater than or equal to 2 doses below the NOAEL, and the end point measured has the capacity to display either stimulatory or inhibitory responses), hormesis is frequently encountered and is broadly represented according to agent, model, and end point. These findings have broad-based implications for study design, risk assessment methods, and the establishment of optimal drug doses and suggest important evolutionarily adaptive strategies for dose-response relationships.