Excess of twins among affected sibling pairs with autism: Implications for the etiology of autism

It is widely accepted that genes play a role in the etiology of autism. Evidence for this derives, in part, from twin data. However, despite converging evidence from gene-mapping studies, aspects of the genetic contribution remain obscure. In a sample of families selected because each had exactly two affected sibs, we observed a remarkably high proportion of affected twin pairs, both MZ and DZ. Of 166 affected sib pairs, 30 (12 MZ, 17 DZ, and 1 of unknown zygosity) were twin pairs. Deviation from expected values was statistically significant (P<10(-6) for all twins); in a similarly ascertained sample of individuals with type I diabetes, there was no deviation from expected values. We demonstrate that to ascribe the excess of twins with autism solely to ascertainment bias would require very large ascertainment factors; for example, affected twin pairs would need to be, on average, 10 times more likely to be ascertained than affected nontwin sib pairs (or 7 times more likely if stoppage plays a role). Either risk factors (related to twinning or to fetal development) or other factors (genetic or nongenetic) in the parents may contribute to autism.