期刊
RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY
卷 74, 期 2, 页码 117-128出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/S0951-8320(01)00069-2
关键词
reliability growth development test; Bayesian analysis; reliability growth models; elicitation; prior probability distributions
A sound methodology for the elicitation of subjective expert judgement is a pre-requisite for specifying prior distributions for the parameters of reliability growth models. In this paper, we describe an elicitation process that is developed to ensure valid data are collected by suggesting how possible bias might be identified and managed. As well as discussing the theory underpinning the elicitation process, the paper gives practical guidance concerning its implementation during reliability growth testing. The collection of subjective data using the proposed elicitation process is embedded within a Bayesian reliability growth modelling framework and reflections upon its practical use are described. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
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