DSM-IV Conduct Disorder symptoms in adolescents as markers of registered criminality

A nationwide sample of 1,079 Norwegian adolescent psychiatric in-patients, 581 males and 498 females, were followed up after 11-33 (mean 23.2) years. On the basis of detailed records from index hospitalisation they were re-diagnosed and retrospectively scored on 14 of the 15 behaviour items listed as diagnostic criteria for conduct disorder in DSM-IV. The patient list was linked to the national criminal registry, and 48 % were found to have a criminal record. The ability of the 14 behaviour items to identify overall and specific kinds of registered criminality was investigated. In males, stealing was the strongest marker for overall and violent crime. Having forced someone into sexual activity was a strong marker for later sex offences. In females, running away from home was strongly associated with overall and violent registered criminality. ROC curves were constructed to test the sensitivity and specificity of the sum of conduct disorder behaviour items fulfilled in the identification of individuals with registered criminality. The area under the curve was 0.81 (95 % c. i. = 0.78-0.85) in males and 0.75 (95 % c. i. = 0.71-0.80) in females. A cutoff at 3 criteria fulfilled seemed optimal in males and somewhat high in females.