Regional modeling of liquefaction-induced ground deformation

Liquefaction-induced ground deformations are permanent ground displacements resulting from earthquakes, which can extend over areas as large as a few square kilometers and have amplitudes ranging from a few centimeters to few tens of meters. This type of ground deformation caused substantial damage to lifelines and pile-foundations of buildings and bridge piers along the Kobe shoreline during the 1995 Hyogoken-Nanbu, Japan, earthquake. This paper presents a four-parameter multiple-linear-regression model for estimating the amplitude of liquefaction-induced ground displacement for both ground-slope and free-face conditions at a regional scale. The applicability of the model for mapping the amplitude of liquefaction-induced ground deformation is investigated over selected regions. The paper also presents a regional model for estimating the probability for the displacements to exceed some threshold amplitude, and to fall within confidence intervals. Both models are useful for risk assessment to spatially distributed lifeline networks resulting from future earthquakes.