Patterns and mechanisms of masting in the large-seeded southern hemisphere conifer Araucaria araucana

Masting, the intermittent and synchronous production of large seed crops, may result from either of two major processes: resource matching and economy of scale. Components of cone production in Araucaria araucana were partitioned among populations and trees to ascertain the existence of masting and the processes involved. Cone production data from seven populations were obtained during a 9-year period and seed gathering data were available for an 18-year time series from six sites in an area of more than 7600 km(2). Araucaria araucana showed environmentally triggered, intermittent, moderately fluctuating, and highly regionally synchronous reproduction. The mean pairwise correlations of cones production among populations and seed gathering sites were 0.89 and 0.74, respectively, suggesting synchrony in reproduction. Among trees we observed a mean correlation of 0.74 with values ranging from 0.66 to 0.81 for the analysed populations. The existence of negative autocorrelation in seed production between year 0 and year -2 at the individual tree level suggests the presence of 'switching' or internal resource allocation, thus discarding the Resource Matching hypothesis. Mean coefficient of variation (CVp) among populations was moderate (0.95) and similar to the modal CVp values reported in the published reports. Mean CVi among individual trees was 1.16, suggesting a large number of equally and synchronously fluctuating trees, rather than a few largely fluctuating individuals. These results suggest that pollination efficiency and/or predator satiation hypotheses could be responsible for the masting cycles in this conifer. Ancillary data about limitation of airborne pollen dispersion and temporal variation in the amount of seeds per cone and about seed predator satiation, also support both proposed mechanisms.