期刊
ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS
卷 14, 期 3, 页码 170-175出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1002/asl2.435
关键词
attribution; climate change; drought
资金
- Program for Risk Information on Climate Change (SOUSEI program)
- Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan [23310014]
- Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Ministry of the Environment of Japan [S-10]
- Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research [23310014] Funding Source: KAKEN
We produced 100-member event attribution ensembles during 2009-2012 under all forcing conditions and in two different counterfactual worlds without anthropogenic forcing (mainly greenhouse gases and aerosols) and without aerosol emission changes using the MIROC5 atmospheric general circulation model. It seemed that both human influences and the sea surface temperature (SST) natural variability increased probabilities of the 2010 severe drought in the South Amazon region, and that changes in aerosols emissions had little effect on the drought. It should be noted that our assessments were sensitive to bias corrections according to the relationships between the SST natural variability and precipitation.
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