Air pollution modeling in the Mediterranean Region: Analysis and forecasting of episodes

Air pollution modeling in the Mediterranean Region is in its third decade. The first step beyond the Gaussian-type plume dispersion model was the combined use of mesoscale atmospheric models with three-dimensional dispersion models. During the last decade, availability of computer power has increased tremendously, and high-resolution configurations of atmospheric and photochemical models have been applied in regional studies. Advanced modeling techniques have opened new opportunities in air pollution studies. Capabilities are available for forecasting air pollution episodes along with capabilities for traditional analyses of air quality measurements for specific cases of severe episodic atmospheric pollution. In this study, we have elaborated on capabilities for analyzing and forecasting air pollution episodes, mainly for desert dust and photochemical pollutants like ozone and mono-nitrogen oxides (NOx) Advanced modeling techniques were used with the SKIRON/Eta atmospheric and dust-modeling system, RAMS atmospheric modeling system, and air quality model CAMx. The methodology for analyzing air pollution episodes and products of the day-to-day forecasting application was analyzed with available measurements from the Mediterranean Region and Greece. The results from air quality forecasts have shown acceptable agreement with the observations. For photochemical pollutants, the necessity for higher model and emission resolutions and boundary conditions has become evident. The gas-to-particle conversion mechanisms and separation of anthropogenic and natural sources of origin for episodes of extreme pollution are still open issues. Nevertheless, simulating and forecasting air pollution processes have proven a useful and adequate methodology for investigating air quality degradation in various scales and locations. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.