Using weather variables pre- and post-heading to predict deoxynivalenol content in winter wheat

Substantial economic losses have occurred because of unacceptable concentrations of deoxynivalenol (DON) in wheat. Accurate predictions of DON in mature grain at wheat heading are needed to make decisions on whether a control strategy is needed. Our objective was to identify important weather variables, and their timing, for predicting concentrations of DON in mature grain at wheat heading. We measured the concentration of DON in 399 farm fields in southern Ontario, Canada, from 1996 to 2000. DON varied in field samples from undetectable to over 29 mug g(-1). Weather variables, such as daily rainfall, daily minimum and maximum air temperatures, and hourly relative humidity, were estimated for each field from nearby weather stations and were normalized to the date of 50% head emergence. Stepwise multiple regression procedures determined the most important weather variables and their timing around heading, DON was responsive to weather in three critical periods around heading. In the first period, 4 to 7 days before heading, DON generally increased with the number of days with >5 mm of rain and decreased with the number of days of <10degreesC. In the second period, 3 to 6 days after heading, DON increased with the number of days of rain >3 mm and decreased with days exceeding 32degreesC. In the third period, 7 to 10 days after heading, DON increased with number of days with >3 mm of rain. A relationship between relative humidity and DON was not detected. Overall, 73% of the variation in the concentration of DON was explained by using weather from all three critical periods. Concentrations of DON <2.0 mug g(-1) were predicted best; in fact, concentrations of DON of <1.0 mug g(-1) were predicted correctly on over 89% of the fields used to train the model.