Sustainability analysis for Yellow River water resources using the system dynamics approach

The water resource issue is one of the most significant problems that the Yellow River basin will face this century, and one which has received much attention by public and government for several years. Water authorities will face great challenges in meeting the in-stream flow requirements and providing more water for growing populations, industry and agriculture. In order to evaluate the sustainability of the water resource system in the study area, an object-oriented system dynamics approach has been used to develop a model for the water resources system in the Yellow River basin, which is referred to as the Water Resources System Dynamics (WRSD) model. It has been developed for simulating a water resource system and capturing the dynamic character of the main elements affecting water demand and supply in the study area. For the business-as-usual (BaU) scenario, the water demands in the Yellow River basin are estimated 50.9, 56.5, and 59.5 billion m(3) for 2010, 2020, and 2030. The existing and potential water supplies from surface water, aquifers and treated waste-water are estimated, and potential water demands for domestic, industrial and agricultural uses are projected. Various water supply and demand scenarios have then been explored by changing variables and parameters, and the sustainability index of the water supply system is estimated for different sub-regions over various periods.