The influence of the winter Arctic oscillation on the northern Russia spring temperature

Correlation and trend analyses are applied to examine relationships between the northern Russia snow/ice season surface air temperature (SAT) and winter circulation, represented by the January-March Arctic oscillation (AO) index. The 1935-99 series of winter and spring monthly SAT from five stations are used, with the winter season being defined as January-March and the spring season being defined specifically for each station in accordance with local snow/ice season duration from April-May through April-July. It is shown that the influence of the winter circulation on SAT is evident at least until the end of snow/ice season, which suggests that this influence is implemented via feedbacks provided by snow and sea ice. The winter AO accounts for some 25-50% (15-20%) of the winter (spring) SAT variance. More than 50% of the 30 year (1968-97) trends in both winter and spring SAT for northwestern Russia and more than 40% for northwestern Siberia are linearly correlated with the winter AO. It is proposed that in the Arctic Ocean regions, where snow and ice do not melt completely, the winter AO influence on SAT is likely to be evident at least until the next year's winter. Copyright (C) 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.