Predictions for the frequency and orbital radii of massive extrasolar planets

We investigate the migration of massive extrasolar planets caused by gravitational interaction with a viscous protoplanetary disc. We show that a model in which planets form at 5 au at a constant rate, before migrating, leads to a predicted distribution of planets that is a steeply rising function of log(a ), where a is the orbital radius. Between 1 and 3 au, the expected number of planets per logarithmic interval in a roughly doubles. We demonstrate that, once selection effects are accounted for, this is consistent with current data, and then extrapolate the observed planet fraction to masses and radii that are inaccessible to current observations. In total, approximately 15 per cent of stars targeted by existing radial velocity searches are predicted to possess planets with masses 0.3