期刊
BIOMETRICS
卷 58, 期 3, 页码 540-547出版社
BLACKWELL PUBLISHING LTD
DOI: 10.1111/j.0006-341X.2002.00540.x
关键词
Ardea cinerea; birds; census data; herons; kalman filter; lapwings; Leslie matrix models; maximum likelihood; prediction; productivity; ring-recovery data; state-space; Vanellus vanellas; winter weather
In studies of wild animals, one frequently encounters both census and mark-recapture-recovery data. We show how a state-space model for census data in combination with the usual multinomial-based models for ring-recovery data provide estimates of productivity not available from either type of data, alone. The approach is illustrated on two British bird species. For the lapwing; we calibrate how its recent decline could be due to a decrease in productivity. For the heron, there is no evidence for a decline in productivity, and the combined analysis increases significantly the strength of logistic regressions of survival on winter severity.
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