GEOMETRIC AND DYNAMICAL MODELS OF REVERBERATION MAPPING DATA

We present a general method to analyze reverberation (or echo) mapping data that simultaneously provides estimates for the black hole mass and for the geometry and dynamics of the broad-line region (BLR) in active galactic nuclei (AGNs). While previous methods yield a typical scale size of the BLR or a reconstruction of the transfer function, our method directly infers the spatial and velocity distribution of the BLR from the data, from which a transfer function can be easily derived. Previous echo mapping analysis requires an independent estimate of a scaling factor known as the virial coefficient to infer the mass of the black hole, but this is not needed in our more direct approach. We use the formalism of Bayesian probability theory and implement a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to obtain estimates and uncertainties for the parameters of our BLR models. Fitting of models to the data requires knowledge of the continuum flux at all times, not just the measured times. We use Gaussian Processes to interpolate and extrapolate the continuum light curve data in a fully consistent probabilistic manner, taking the associated errors into account. We illustrate our method using simple models of BLR geometry and dynamics and show that we can recover the parameter values of our test systems with realistic uncertainties that depend upon the variability of the AGN and the quality of the reverberation mapping observing campaign. With a geometry model we can recover the mean radius of the BLR to within similar to 0.1 dex random uncertainty for simulated data with an integrated line flux uncertainty of 1.5%, while with a dynamical model we can recover the black hole mass and the mean radius to within similar to 0.05 dex random uncertainty, for simulated data with a line profile average signal-to-noise ratio of 4 per spectral pixel. These uncertainties do not include modeling errors, which are likely to be present in the analysis of real data, and should therefore be considered as lower limits to the accuracy of the method.