期刊
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
卷 99, 期 20, 页码 13330-13335出版社
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.202244299
关键词
spatial correlations; pair-wise models; mixing matrix; core groups; contact tracing
A wide range of communicable human diseases can be considered as spreading through a network of possible transmission routes. The implied network structure is vital in determining disease dynamics, especially when the average number of connections per individual is small as is the case for many sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). Here we develop an intuitive mathematical framework to deal with the heterogeneities implicit within contact networks and those that arise because of the infection process. These models are compared with full stochastic simulations and show excellent agreement across a wide range of parameters. We show how such models can be used to estimate parameters of epidemiological importance, and how they can be extended to examine the effectiveness of various control strategies, in particular screening programs and contact tracing.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据